Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #812 of 1,000

P0644

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 45,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 384

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 616

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 167Deviation -R 5 449

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 616. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 943

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 527 to R 22 519
Finished ahead: 238 / 1,000 (23,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #793 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.932
Mean bets / session: 5.341
Loss multiplier: 1.3121×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,1% / 54,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 7 41823 wagers · RTP 78,76%

American RouletteR 6 14520 wagers · RTP 147,29%

CrashR 5 35820 wagers · RTP 79,04%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 92020 wagers · RTP 68,92%

Craps / DiceR 3 79015 wagers · RTP 71,93%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 60210 wagers · RTP 75,90%

BlackjackR 1 6056 wagers · RTP 6,17%

European RouletteR 1 5765 wagers · RTP 32,17%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8946 wagers · RTP 17,34%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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