Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #928 of 1,000

P0645

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 47,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 594

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 406

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 279Deviation -R 8 127

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 406. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 302

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 995 to R 25 954
Finished ahead: 223 / 1,000 (22,3%)
At least one ruin: 46 / 1,000 (4,6%)
Median rank: #909 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.396
Mean bets / session: 4.932
Loss multiplier: 1.4898×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 87,9% / 98,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 03528 wagers · RTP 81,44%

American RouletteR 7 87827 wagers · RTP 55,18%

CrashR 4 69823 wagers · RTP 122,94%

BaccaratR 3 93512 wagers · RTP 99,64%

European RouletteR 3 28414 wagers · RTP 14,37%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 16825 wagers · RTP 63,56%

BlackjackR 1 93212 wagers · RTP 95,89%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 07115 wagers · RTP 95,99%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9378 wagers · RTP 31,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5284 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies