Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #61 of 1,000

P0646

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 87,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 594

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 594

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 634Deviation R 9 228

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 594. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 523

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 961 to R 25 952
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #774 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,84% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.802
Mean bets / session: 5.351
Loss multiplier: 1.2643×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,0% / 71,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 11 51027 wagers · RTP 233,26%

Craps / DiceR 9 39120 wagers · RTP 94,64%

American RouletteR 7 75218 wagers · RTP 102,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 00016 wagers · RTP 6,25%

BaccaratR 3 3336 wagers · RTP 69,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 00012 wagers · RTP 75,00%

BlackjackR 2 9155 wagers · RTP 110,67%

European RouletteR 1 9955 wagers · RTP 52,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4471 wagers · RTP 134,25%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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