Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #37 of 1,000

P0647

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 91,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 24 808

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 14 808

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 170Deviation R 16 978

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 14 808. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 287

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 873 to R 25 823
Finished ahead: 250 / 1,000 (25,0%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #803 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,18% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.065
Mean bets / session: 4.521
Loss multiplier: 1.382×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 88,2% / 94,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 28 28232 wagers · RTP 144,11%

American RouletteR 14 15018 wagers · RTP 45,20%

BlackjackR 10 62113 wagers · RTP 124,20%

BaccaratR 9 02010 wagers · RTP 97,50%

CrashR 6 35213 wagers · RTP 120,04%

European RouletteR 3 9255 wagers · RTP 114,90%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 3817 wagers · RTP 88,48%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 1 216,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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