Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #899 of 1,000

P0648

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 17,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 130

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 870

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 889Deviation -R 6 981

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 870. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 011

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 597 to R 23 817
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #795 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.235
Mean bets / session: 4.246
Loss multiplier: 1.4571×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,3% / 98,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 11 79829 wagers · RTP 76,55%

Craps / DiceR 8 99921 wagers · RTP 87,25%

CrashR 8 93926 wagers · RTP 109,30%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 32914 wagers · RTP 26,28%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 19814 wagers · RTP 46,90%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 09310 wagers · RTP 138,38%

European RouletteR 2 1916 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 12,50%

BaccaratR 1 5785 wagers · RTP 138,38%

BlackjackR 1 2296 wagers · RTP 113,26%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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