Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #123 of 1,000

P0649

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 73,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 742

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 742

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 057Deviation R 3 798

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 742. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 643

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 968 to R 18 817
Finished ahead: 293 / 1,000 (29,3%)
At least one ruin: 6 / 1,000 (0,6%)
Median rank: #818 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 5.588
Loss multiplier: 1.461×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,0% / 88,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 20 64945 wagers · RTP 120,61%

American RouletteR 12 79728 wagers · RTP 50,86%

Craps / DiceR 10 98124 wagers · RTP 64,71%

BaccaratR 4 0589 wagers · RTP 117,73%

European RouletteR 3 8099 wagers · RTP 440,75%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 5369 wagers · RTP 18,43%

BlackjackR 2 9406 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7427 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2185 wagers · RTP 71,84%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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