Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #985 of 1,000

P0650

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 1,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 000

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 000

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 161Deviation -R 8 839

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 000. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 225

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 981 to R 15 645
Finished ahead: 280 / 1,000 (28,0%)
At least one ruin: 17 / 1,000 (1,7%)
Median rank: #757 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.277
Mean bets / session: 5.617
Loss multiplier: 1.427×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,0% / 89,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 5 69538 wagers · RTP 65,33%

American RouletteR 5 01336 wagers · RTP 64,03%

Craps / DiceR 4 96733 wagers · RTP 59,19%

BaccaratR 3 52317 wagers · RTP 71,26%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 30912 wagers · RTP 86,44%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 58127 wagers · RTP 50,98%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5039 wagers · RTP 58,25%

European RouletteR 1 4969 wagers · RTP 34,22%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 27411 wagers · RTP 101,65%

BlackjackR 5085 wagers · RTP 0,79%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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