Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #933 of 1,000

P0651

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 11,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 378

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 622

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 787Deviation -R 8 835

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 622. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 596

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 824 to R 18 988
Finished ahead: 282 / 1,000 (28,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #812 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.255
Mean bets / session: 4.692
Loss multiplier: 1.2954×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,8% / 91,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 56433 wagers · RTP 32,03%

CrashR 4 29929 wagers · RTP 65,92%

European RouletteR 2 83219 wagers · RTP 5,51%

Craps / DiceR 2 69320 wagers · RTP 155,74%

BlackjackR 1 4579 wagers · RTP 27,18%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 31311 wagers · RTP 99,29%

BaccaratR 1 0447 wagers · RTP 28,58%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9078 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4228 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1062 wagers · RTP 48,11%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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