Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #909 of 1,000

P0652

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 32,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 979

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 021

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 103Deviation -R 7 918

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 021. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 762

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 961 to R 18 005
Finished ahead: 279 / 1,000 (27,9%)
At least one ruin: 6 / 1,000 (0,6%)
Median rank: #823 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.449
Mean bets / session: 3.523
Loss multiplier: 1.575×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,3% / 64,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 21224 wagers · RTP 59,21%

CrashR 5 02325 wagers · RTP 36,07%

American RouletteR 4 83125 wagers · RTP 99,92%

BaccaratR 3 34415 wagers · RTP 100,48%

European RouletteR 1 5666 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 53713 wagers · RTP 81,72%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 43410 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 78310 wagers · RTP 31,42%

BlackjackR 7677 wagers · RTP 111,86%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5134 wagers · RTP 106,06%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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