Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #819 of 1,000

P0653

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 17,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 235

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 765

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 766Deviation -R 4 999

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 765. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 378

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 447 to R 9 632
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #664 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.834
Mean bets / session: 3.057
Loss multiplier: 1.3987×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,4% / 57,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 04217 wagers · RTP 57,22%

American RouletteR 3 76013 wagers · RTP 78,35%

BlackjackR 3 70114 wagers · RTP 112,24%

CrashR 3 38111 wagers · RTP 55,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4046 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2855 wagers · RTP 118,89%

BaccaratR 8893 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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