Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #22 of 1,000

P0654

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 95,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 31 295

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 21 295

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 817Deviation R 24 111

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 21 295. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 851

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 561 to R 17 963
Finished ahead: 249 / 1,000 (24,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #788 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.387
Mean bets / session: 3.902
Loss multiplier: 1.3177×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 94,1% / 77,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 15 11029 wagers · RTP 61,40%

American RouletteR 15 01328 wagers · RTP 109,88%

Craps / DiceR 12 72423 wagers · RTP 140,63%

CrashR 9 68620 wagers · RTP 212,82%

European RouletteR 7 01113 wagers · RTP 246,36%

BlackjackR 4 7938 wagers · RTP 115,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 81,82%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 85,71%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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