Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #886 of 1,000

P0656

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 5,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 454

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 546

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 913Deviation -R 7 634

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 546. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 579

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 543 to R 23 005
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #679 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.893
Mean bets / session: 3.32
Loss multiplier: 1.5703×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,5% / 83,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 88020 wagers · RTP 88,73%

American RouletteR 3 42515 wagers · RTP 68,12%

CrashR 3 04011 wagers · RTP 23,65%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0119 wagers · RTP 91,28%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 80010 wagers · RTP 4,61%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5137 wagers · RTP 44,55%

BlackjackR 1 3125 wagers · RTP 96,34%

European RouletteR 1 0244 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 6802 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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