Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #990 of 1,000

P0657

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 3,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 180

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 12 820

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 099Deviation -R 9 721

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 12 820. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 316

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 864 to R 19 119
Finished ahead: 222 / 1,000 (22,2%)
At least one ruin: 108 / 1,000 (10,8%)
Median rank: #909 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.83
Mean bets / session: 5.705
Loss multiplier: 1.4285×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 89,8% / 73,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 11 81532 wagers · RTP 118,45%

CrashR 8 18829 wagers · RTP 41,18%

American RouletteR 6 53320 wagers · RTP 26,13%

European RouletteR 2 2366 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 7586 wagers · RTP 0,40%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5625 wagers · RTP 80,92%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1776 wagers · RTP 78,72%

Lottery / JackpotR 4106 wagers · RTP 49,76%

BaccaratR 3654 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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