Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #200 of 1,000

P0658

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 69,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 156

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 156

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 076Deviation R 1 232

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 156. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 418

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 190 to R 12 979
Finished ahead: 315 / 1,000 (31,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.065
Mean bets / session: 3.613
Loss multiplier: 1.3694×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,2% / 67,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 88821 wagers · RTP 142,86%

American RouletteR 6 23219 wagers · RTP 63,16%

CrashR 4 92015 wagers · RTP 93,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 60811 wagers · RTP 61,35%

BlackjackR 2 9529 wagers · RTP 111,11%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 12,50%

European RouletteR 6562 wagers · RTP 450,00%

BaccaratR 6562 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 250,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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