Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #996 of 1,000

P0659

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 1,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 127

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 15 874

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 901Deviation -R 11 972

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 15 874. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 797

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 335 to R 19 437
Finished ahead: 189 / 1,000 (18,9%)
At least one ruin: 136 / 1,000 (13,6%)
Median rank: #935 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.934
Mean bets / session: 5.968
Loss multiplier: 1.4199×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,8% / 97,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 96236 wagers · RTP 53,01%

Craps / DiceR 11 17020 wagers · RTP 124,13%

American RouletteR 8 17414 wagers · RTP 19,21%

BaccaratR 3 6726 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 33011 wagers · RTP 36,02%

BlackjackR 2 6217 wagers · RTP 140,02%

European RouletteR 2 5739 wagers · RTP 98,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2629 wagers · RTP 99,13%

Lottery / JackpotR 6858 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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