Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #728 of 1,000

P0660

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 44,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 192

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 809

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 007Deviation -R 3 802

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 809. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 047

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 238 to R 13 684
Finished ahead: 279 / 1,000 (27,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #703 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,32% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.021
Mean bets / session: 3.816
Loss multiplier: 1.3886×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,6% / 86,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 50619 wagers · RTP 111,77%

CrashR 5 38318 wagers · RTP 89,02%

American RouletteR 5 34217 wagers · RTP 76,19%

BaccaratR 1 9716 wagers · RTP 105,14%

European RouletteR 1 6336 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 50015 wagers · RTP 13,33%

BlackjackR 1 2944 wagers · RTP 214,26%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2405 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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