Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #118 of 1,000

P0661

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 79,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 980

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 980

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 231Deviation R 4 210

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 980. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 827

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 609 to R 20 804
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #824 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.136
Mean bets / session: 5.319
Loss multiplier: 1.4723×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,9% / 71,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 11 43127 wagers · RTP 99,59%

CrashR 9 18026 wagers · RTP 116,55%

European RouletteR 9 06323 wagers · RTP 237,61%

American RouletteR 6 19016 wagers · RTP 17,64%

BaccaratR 6 02915 wagers · RTP 96,62%

BlackjackR 4 01411 wagers · RTP 71,85%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 22,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 8728 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0574 wagers · RTP 30,42%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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