Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #860 of 1,000

P0662

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 37,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 082

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 918

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 942Deviation -R 4 977

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 918. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 918

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 532 to R 21 237
Finished ahead: 185 / 1,000 (18,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #827 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,04% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.091
Mean bets / session: 5.323
Loss multiplier: 1.3031×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,6% / 77,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 18 84145 wagers · RTP 47,39%

Craps / DiceR 11 22623 wagers · RTP 74,92%

CrashR 8 98323 wagers · RTP 116,94%

BlackjackR 5 55814 wagers · RTP 80,66%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 17013 wagers · RTP 74,61%

European RouletteR 3 1097 wagers · RTP 93,86%

BaccaratR 2 8646 wagers · RTP 172,03%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 11,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 9728 wagers · RTP 424,70%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 00010 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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