Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #649 of 1,000

P0663

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 60,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 451

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 549

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 018Deviation -R 2 531

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 549. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 561

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 886 to R 21 645
Finished ahead: 284 / 1,000 (28,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #776 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,29% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.847
Mean bets / session: 3.639
Loss multiplier: 1.484×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 68,3% / 79,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 11 20918 wagers · RTP 103,70%

American RouletteR 7 72713 wagers · RTP 17,96%

BlackjackR 5 30210 wagers · RTP 133,50%

CrashR 2 8336 wagers · RTP 138,23%

BaccaratR 1 3092 wagers · RTP 103,38%

European RouletteR 1 2592 wagers · RTP 165,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 79,87%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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