Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #931 of 1,000

P0664

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 6,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 412

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 588

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 204Deviation -R 8 384

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 588. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 699

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 664 to R 23 590
Finished ahead: 248 / 1,000 (24,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #821 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.497
Mean bets / session: 4.55
Loss multiplier: 1.2945×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,6% / 67,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5 27733 wagers · RTP 49,52%

CrashR 4 92531 wagers · RTP 78,49%

American RouletteR 4 09025 wagers · RTP 30,81%

BaccaratR 3 46929 wagers · RTP 77,92%

BlackjackR 2 90120 wagers · RTP 105,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 30217 wagers · RTP 19,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 18211 wagers · RTP 119,75%

Lottery / JackpotR 5736 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 5444 wagers · RTP 90,44%

Three-Reel SlotR 4456 wagers · RTP 16,07%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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