Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #800 of 1,000

P0665

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 37,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 691

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 309

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 388Deviation -R 4 921

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 309. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 459

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 518 to R 17 557
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #728 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,98% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.158
Mean bets / session: 4.244
Loss multiplier: 1.4115×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,9% / 79,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 8 38625 wagers · RTP 35,38%

Craps / DiceR 7 73724 wagers · RTP 106,35%

CrashR 7 34523 wagers · RTP 65,05%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 75725 wagers · RTP 213,24%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 9969 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 9117 wagers · RTP 67,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6566 wagers · RTP 79,59%

BlackjackR 1 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 5755 wagers · RTP 69,83%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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