Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #803 of 1,000

P0666

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 57,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 603

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 397

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 574Deviation -R 4 823

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 397. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 914

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 932 to R 26 302
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #862 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,47% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.453
Mean bets / session: 4.494
Loss multiplier: 1.3584×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,2% / 56,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 77432 wagers · RTP 103,79%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 58931 wagers · RTP 22,43%

CrashR 6 76022 wagers · RTP 142,01%

American RouletteR 5 48918 wagers · RTP 63,93%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 21813 wagers · RTP 107,77%

BlackjackR 2 8719 wagers · RTP 133,33%

European RouletteR 2 2558 wagers · RTP 84,88%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8346 wagers · RTP 28,09%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 0034 wagers · RTP 101,29%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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