Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #237 of 1,000

P0667

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 66,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 950

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 50

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 236Deviation R 1 186

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 50. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 824

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 322 to R 16 290
Finished ahead: 327 / 1,000 (32,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #696 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.829
Mean bets / session: 3.881
Loss multiplier: 1.5251×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 89,3% / 93,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 11 99125 wagers · RTP 72,27%

Craps / DiceR 10 26622 wagers · RTP 100,10%

CrashR 4 3789 wagers · RTP 160,37%

BlackjackR 4 3759 wagers · RTP 97,34%

European RouletteR 1 5033 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 1 0022 wagers · RTP 97,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 16,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 267,78%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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