Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #870 of 1,000

P0668

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 49,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 883

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 117

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 649Deviation -R 6 468

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 117. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 107

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 913 to R 26 862
Finished ahead: 206 / 1,000 (20,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #868 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,69% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.982
Mean bets / session: 5.982
Loss multiplier: 1.3206×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,7% / 59,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 10 80233 wagers · RTP 47,53%

Craps / DiceR 9 93126 wagers · RTP 131,59%

CrashR 5 18720 wagers · RTP 127,24%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 21314 wagers · RTP 92,03%

European RouletteR 4 0139 wagers · RTP 13,16%

BlackjackR 3 36410 wagers · RTP 63,73%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 9889 wagers · RTP 22,64%

BaccaratR 1 9549 wagers · RTP 131,05%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0916 wagers · RTP 22,91%

Lottery / JackpotR 98610 wagers · RTP 81,14%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies