Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #835 of 1,000

P0669

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 60,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 959

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 041

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 705Deviation -R 4 336

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 041. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 059

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 997 to R 22 383
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 53 / 1,000 (5,3%)
Median rank: #898 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.273
Mean bets / session: 5.532
Loss multiplier: 1.4553×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 87,1% / 75,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 18 40640 wagers · RTP 91,79%

American RouletteR 16 11134 wagers · RTP 71,57%

Craps / DiceR 13 74831 wagers · RTP 116,35%

BlackjackR 8 30617 wagers · RTP 103,92%

European RouletteR 5 20011 wagers · RTP 59,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9907 wagers · RTP 104,48%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 96412 wagers · RTP 66,26%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 72411 wagers · RTP 78,01%

BaccaratR 1 8414 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 70017 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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