Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #550 of 1,000

P0670

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 67,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 693

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 307

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 941Deviation -R 365

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 307. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 646

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 971 to R 22 511
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 6 / 1,000 (0,6%)
Median rank: #821 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.078
Mean bets / session: 5.274
Loss multiplier: 1.391×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 94,9% / 59,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 11 50827 wagers · RTP 98,92%

CrashR 10 51625 wagers · RTP 83,89%

American RouletteR 8 07019 wagers · RTP 68,40%

BaccaratR 4 55011 wagers · RTP 139,05%

European RouletteR 4 06510 wagers · RTP 76,16%

BlackjackR 3 7679 wagers · RTP 129,97%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4668 wagers · RTP 177,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 50025 wagers · RTP 48,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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