Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #7 of 1,000

P0671

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 95,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 47 625

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 37 625

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 245Deviation R 41 870

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 37 625. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 626

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 002 to R 35 275
Finished ahead: 220 / 1,000 (22,0%)
At least one ruin: 103 / 1,000 (10,3%)
Median rank: #923 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,23% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.356
Mean bets / session: 5.445
Loss multiplier: 1.5607×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 90,0% / 87,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 33 64843 wagers · RTP 106,12%

Craps / DiceR 24 95531 wagers · RTP 109,68%

European RouletteR 22 15828 wagers · RTP 265,21%

CrashR 20 00040 wagers · RTP 92,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 50011 wagers · RTP 136,13%

BlackjackR 4 0015 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 50014 wagers · RTP 42,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 50014 wagers · RTP 85,71%

BaccaratR 3 2204 wagers · RTP 195,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 44,44%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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