Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #943 of 1,000

P0673

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 33,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 162

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 838

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 657Deviation -R 8 182

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 838. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 906

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 998 to R 22 414
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 62 / 1,000 (6,2%)
Median rank: #895 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,41% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.288
Mean bets / session: 5.764
Loss multiplier: 1.3563×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,2% / 59,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9 03647 wagers · RTP 25,12%

CrashR 6 33732 wagers · RTP 133,89%

Craps / DiceR 6 24932 wagers · RTP 69,34%

BlackjackR 5 40030 wagers · RTP 91,44%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 36915 wagers · RTP 70,89%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 86717 wagers · RTP 22,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2947 wagers · RTP 32,38%

European RouletteR 9506 wagers · RTP 130,42%

Lottery / JackpotR 4685 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3874 wagers · RTP 190,70%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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