Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #970 of 1,000

P0674

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 33,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 988

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 422Deviation -R 6 566

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 988. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 848

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 555 to R 21 289
Finished ahead: 222 / 1,000 (22,2%)
At least one ruin: 316 / 1,000 (31,6%)
Median rank: #942 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.289
Mean bets / session: 5.663
Loss multiplier: 1.5656×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,1% / 93,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 9 14133 wagers · RTP 74,17%

CrashR 6 87929 wagers · RTP 84,11%

American RouletteR 5 69528 wagers · RTP 53,01%

BaccaratR 4 75818 wagers · RTP 86,07%

BlackjackR 3 39113 wagers · RTP 97,14%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 86417 wagers · RTP 92,81%

European RouletteR 2 7949 wagers · RTP 75,98%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 7998 wagers · RTP 63,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 69411 wagers · RTP 14,76%

Lottery / JackpotR 3187 wagers · RTP 62,89%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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