Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #181 of 1,000

P0676

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 79,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 315

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 315

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 5 075Deviation R 5 390

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 315. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 674

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 998 to R 27 782
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 57 / 1,000 (5,7%)
Median rank: #927 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.458
Mean bets / session: 5.725
Loss multiplier: 1.4833×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,8% / 55,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 18 24048 wagers · RTP 107,29%

Craps / DiceR 15 16340 wagers · RTP 100,24%

American RouletteR 10 90129 wagers · RTP 31,37%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 47734 wagers · RTP 56,03%

BaccaratR 5 70015 wagers · RTP 40,00%

European RouletteR 5 55815 wagers · RTP 351,10%

BlackjackR 4 10111 wagers · RTP 125,09%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9848 wagers · RTP 102,20%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 15,38%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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