Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #878 of 1,000

P0677

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 4,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 682

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 318

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 976Deviation -R 7 343

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 318. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 083

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 207 to R 14 684
Finished ahead: 310 / 1,000 (31,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #644 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.913
Mean bets / session: 3.106
Loss multiplier: 1.4773×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 94,3% / 61,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 6 46123 wagers · RTP 77,37%

CrashR 4 59315 wagers · RTP 53,47%

American RouletteR 3 03610 wagers · RTP 30,93%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 4674 wagers · RTP 131,49%

BlackjackR 1 3075 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9704 wagers · RTP 25,77%

Three-Reel SlotR 5733 wagers · RTP 71,82%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 4372 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1272 wagers · RTP 132,28%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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