Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #946 of 1,000

P0678

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 7,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 139

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 861

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 860Deviation -R 8 002

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 861. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 771

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 899 to R 18 265
Finished ahead: 213 / 1,000 (21,3%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #859 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.499
Mean bets / session: 5.079
Loss multiplier: 1.5378×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,7% / 80,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 8 61841 wagers · RTP 34,49%

Craps / DiceR 8 28436 wagers · RTP 108,97%

CrashR 6 13936 wagers · RTP 94,41%

European RouletteR 4 94123 wagers · RTP 25,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 77033 wagers · RTP 89,67%

BaccaratR 1 8006 wagers · RTP 57,67%

BlackjackR 1 4999 wagers · RTP 178,79%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 37910 wagers · RTP 142,86%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1687 wagers · RTP 21,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 74013 wagers · RTP 27,03%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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