Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #717 of 1,000

P0679

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 64,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 329

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 672

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 382Deviation -R 1 289

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 672. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 049

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 959 to R 19 756
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #863 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.898
Mean bets / session: 5.303
Loss multiplier: 1.3333×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,8% / 80,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 14 90436 wagers · RTP 49,57%

Craps / DiceR 11 80623 wagers · RTP 147,59%

European RouletteR 5 81012 wagers · RTP 115,46%

American RouletteR 5 19012 wagers · RTP 100,44%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 1975 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 9874 wagers · RTP 110,72%

BaccaratR 1 8724 wagers · RTP 86,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2115 wagers · RTP 20,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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