Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #684 of 1,000

P0680

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 54,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 738

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 262

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 396Deviation -R 2 866

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 262. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 063

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 599 to R 14 826
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #757 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.873
Mean bets / session: 5.255
Loss multiplier: 1.3902×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,1% / 58,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 11 06332 wagers · RTP 91,24%

Craps / DiceR 6 69319 wagers · RTP 113,58%

BaccaratR 5 88515 wagers · RTP 79,05%

BlackjackR 3 86910 wagers · RTP 95,48%

American RouletteR 3 84112 wagers · RTP 55,61%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 71412 wagers · RTP 106,34%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 14,29%

European RouletteR 1 3844 wagers · RTP 136,13%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 87,50%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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