Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #955 of 1,000

P0681

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 13,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 77

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 923

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 363Deviation -R 8 560

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 923. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 300

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 959 to R 24 123
Finished ahead: 165 / 1,000 (16,5%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #907 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,68% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.339
Mean bets / session: 5.134
Loss multiplier: 1.2514×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,7% / 69,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 4 45629 wagers · RTP 42,41%

Craps / DiceR 3 68622 wagers · RTP 11,80%

CrashR 1 90925 wagers · RTP 86,80%

European RouletteR 1 60421 wagers · RTP 3,99%

BaccaratR 1 40315 wagers · RTP 5,13%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 18911 wagers · RTP 17,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 8449 wagers · RTP 63,39%

BlackjackR 3875 wagers · RTP 192,25%

Lottery / JackpotR 38111 wagers · RTP 45,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 37212 wagers · RTP 143,38%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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