Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #949 of 1,000

P0682

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 35,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 93

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 907

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 654Deviation -R 7 253

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 907. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 761

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 996 to R 28 102
Finished ahead: 152 / 1,000 (15,2%)
At least one ruin: 44 / 1,000 (4,4%)
Median rank: #932 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.326
Mean bets / session: 4.752
Loss multiplier: 1.2822×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,6% / 77,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 12 64648 wagers · RTP 101,08%

Craps / DiceR 6 00427 wagers · RTP 94,69%

CrashR 5 83030 wagers · RTP 34,68%

BaccaratR 2 17514 wagers · RTP 141,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 89616 wagers · RTP 13,66%

BlackjackR 1 8145 wagers · RTP 0,96%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3073 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 9734 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 74011 wagers · RTP 1,62%

Three-Reel SlotR 5505 wagers · RTP 31,18%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies