Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #44 of 1,000

P0683

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 91,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 22 423

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 12 423

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 931Deviation R 14 354

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 12 423. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 493

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 856 to R 16 596
Finished ahead: 296 / 1,000 (29,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #774 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.408
Mean bets / session: 3.578
Loss multiplier: 1.4993×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,1% / 96,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 14 94233 wagers · RTP 73,26%

CrashR 10 44624 wagers · RTP 39,18%

Craps / DiceR 5 97015 wagers · RTP 92,26%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 47312 wagers · RTP 99,95%

BlackjackR 5 42313 wagers · RTP 110,27%

BaccaratR 4 11310 wagers · RTP 85,39%

European RouletteR 3 8538 wagers · RTP 653,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7017 wagers · RTP 185,30%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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