Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #987 of 1,000

P0684

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 0,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 656

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 344

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 714Deviation -R 8 630

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 344. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 515

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 985 to R 20 946
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 18 / 1,000 (1,8%)
Median rank: #812 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.414
Mean bets / session: 4.463
Loss multiplier: 1.5637×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,3% / 85,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 22629 wagers · RTP 123,42%

Craps / DiceR 7 63328 wagers · RTP 41,82%

American RouletteR 7 10729 wagers · RTP 58,66%

BaccaratR 6 49525 wagers · RTP 104,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 42014 wagers · RTP 105,02%

BlackjackR 2 41810 wagers · RTP 62,70%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8078 wagers · RTP 34,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5037 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 0665 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 85212 wagers · RTP 23,94%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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