Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #877 of 1,000

P0685

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 59,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 682

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 318

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 193Deviation -R 4 124

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 318. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 634

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 108 to R 19 945
Finished ahead: 248 / 1,000 (24,8%)
At least one ruin: 170 / 1,000 (17,0%)
Median rank: #924 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.196
Mean bets / session: 5.319
Loss multiplier: 1.5112×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,7% / 94,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 12 25834 wagers · RTP 83,90%

CrashR 11 41936 wagers · RTP 108,82%

American RouletteR 9 98327 wagers · RTP 39,37%

Three-Reel SlotR 7 73834 wagers · RTP 156,31%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 41817 wagers · RTP 77,61%

European RouletteR 5 38513 wagers · RTP 84,09%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 38010 wagers · RTP 31,51%

BlackjackR 1 4084 wagers · RTP 78,27%

BaccaratR 9642 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4625 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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