Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #831 of 1,000

P0686

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 58,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 048

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 952

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 084Deviation -R 4 869

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 952. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 265

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 968 to R 31 595
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 6 / 1,000 (0,6%)
Median rank: #871 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,61% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.204
Mean bets / session: 4.479
Loss multiplier: 1.5268×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 72,6% / 54,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 18 23725 wagers · RTP 99,10%

CrashR 12 98528 wagers · RTP 82,88%

American RouletteR 9 89816 wagers · RTP 93,03%

BaccaratR 6 50910 wagers · RTP 90,67%

European RouletteR 6 07110 wagers · RTP 171,01%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 77824 wagers · RTP 43,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 0089 wagers · RTP 68,99%

BlackjackR 3 4835 wagers · RTP 50,42%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8488 wagers · RTP 38,80%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies