Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #892 of 1,000

P0687

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 53,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 363

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 637

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 909Deviation -R 3 728

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 637. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 135

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 16 603
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 76 / 1,000 (7,6%)
Median rank: #903 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.201
Mean bets / session: 5.885
Loss multiplier: 1.3839×, capped at 6 escalations
Stop loss / win: 89,0% / 96,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 14 63652 wagers · RTP 75,98%

American RouletteR 11 28437 wagers · RTP 49,71%

CrashR 10 23532 wagers · RTP 77,30%

BlackjackR 5 23316 wagers · RTP 105,28%

BaccaratR 3 76212 wagers · RTP 76,08%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 52812 wagers · RTP 176,40%

European RouletteR 3 02912 wagers · RTP 245,16%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 88913 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2066 wagers · RTP 83,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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