Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #941 of 1,000

P0688

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 35,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 191

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 809

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 024Deviation -R 6 785

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 809. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 431

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 986 to R 17 300
Finished ahead: 193 / 1,000 (19,3%)
At least one ruin: 20 / 1,000 (2,0%)
Median rank: #914 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,11% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.364
Mean bets / session: 5.828
Loss multiplier: 1.5156×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,5% / 72,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 44437 wagers · RTP 106,86%

American RouletteR 8 45230 wagers · RTP 58,71%

Craps / DiceR 7 46237 wagers · RTP 136,69%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 68328 wagers · RTP 27,11%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 43617 wagers · RTP 93,08%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 10010 wagers · RTP 14,43%

BlackjackR 1 6906 wagers · RTP 80,80%

BaccaratR 1 48711 wagers · RTP 13,92%

European RouletteR 1 3377 wagers · RTP 3,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 7039 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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