Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #927 of 1,000

P0689

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 20,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 614

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 386

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 016Deviation -R 7 370

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 386. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 462

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 843 to R 14 694
Finished ahead: 277 / 1,000 (27,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #811 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,55% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.069
Mean bets / session: 3.562
Loss multiplier: 1.3791×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 90,3% / 96,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 43630 wagers · RTP 60,68%

American RouletteR 7 06423 wagers · RTP 33,54%

Craps / DiceR 4 88716 wagers · RTP 130,96%

BaccaratR 2 3378 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 8737 wagers · RTP 177,95%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1096 wagers · RTP 22,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0955 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5764 wagers · RTP 189,76%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 751 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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