Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #719 of 1,000

P0690

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 69,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 292

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 708

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 128Deviation -R 1 580

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 708. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 377

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 20 711
Finished ahead: 216 / 1,000 (21,6%)
At least one ruin: 91 / 1,000 (9,1%)
Median rank: #912 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,47% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.108
Mean bets / session: 5.48
Loss multiplier: 1.5541×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,1% / 94,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 69834 wagers · RTP 148,90%

American RouletteR 15 11726 wagers · RTP 32,97%

Craps / DiceR 11 28521 wagers · RTP 99,31%

European RouletteR 6 10710 wagers · RTP 167,77%

BaccaratR 5 4469 wagers · RTP 68,64%

BlackjackR 4 65610 wagers · RTP 65,85%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 68411 wagers · RTP 16,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 6376 wagers · RTP 144,41%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 20022 wagers · RTP 18,18%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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