Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #23 of 1,000

P0691

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 92,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 31 274

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 21 274

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 036Deviation R 24 310

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 21 274. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 956

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 982 to R 26 180
Finished ahead: 259 / 1,000 (25,9%)
At least one ruin: 14 / 1,000 (1,4%)
Median rank: #899 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.165
Mean bets / session: 5.872
Loss multiplier: 1.3186×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 90,6% / 85,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 20 56133 wagers · RTP 129,52%

CrashR 19 28040 wagers · RTP 94,32%

American RouletteR 17 17727 wagers · RTP 164,45%

European RouletteR 12 62721 wagers · RTP 184,37%

BaccaratR 7 10411 wagers · RTP 109,18%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 4929 wagers · RTP 75,73%

BlackjackR 3 8296 wagers · RTP 84,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 00012 wagers · RTP 58,33%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 30013 wagers · RTP 30,77%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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