Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #856 of 1,000

P0692

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 56,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 295

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 705

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 155Deviation -R 5 550

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 705. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 518

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 946 to R 25 790
Finished ahead: 218 / 1,000 (21,8%)
At least one ruin: 3 / 1,000 (0,3%)
Median rank: #881 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.48
Mean bets / session: 4.492
Loss multiplier: 1.3147×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 92,0% / 78,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 17 46241 wagers · RTP 99,65%

CrashR 12 06732 wagers · RTP 54,08%

Craps / DiceR 11 03428 wagers · RTP 140,47%

BaccaratR 3 7819 wagers · RTP 80,35%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 62016 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3 2866 wagers · RTP 92,67%

BlackjackR 2 9718 wagers · RTP 71,32%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 1389 wagers · RTP 28,23%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6514 wagers · RTP 155,82%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 44,44%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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