Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #977 of 1,000

P0693

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 7,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 994

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 862Deviation -R 7 132

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 994. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 625

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 996 to R 26 348
Finished ahead: 212 / 1,000 (21,2%)
At least one ruin: 51 / 1,000 (5,1%)
Median rank: #925 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.17
Mean bets / session: 4.287
Loss multiplier: 1.561×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,5% / 99,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 17433 wagers · RTP 80,60%

American RouletteR 5 04828 wagers · RTP 28,49%

CrashR 4 90323 wagers · RTP 95,57%

BlackjackR 3 34815 wagers · RTP 40,95%

European RouletteR 3 21512 wagers · RTP 72,97%

BaccaratR 1 3517 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0535 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9637 wagers · RTP 129,80%

Three-Reel SlotR 6095 wagers · RTP 119,95%

Lottery / JackpotR 3515 wagers · RTP 284,90%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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