Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #855 of 1,000

P0694

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 21,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 365

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 635

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 896Deviation -R 6 739

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 635. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 698

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 905 to R 17 099
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #742 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.124
Mean bets / session: 3.885
Loss multiplier: 1.3391×, capped at 3 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,6% / 61,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 10 44731 wagers · RTP 87,53%

CrashR 6 85727 wagers · RTP 71,48%

American RouletteR 3 98816 wagers · RTP 53,36%

BaccaratR 3 52114 wagers · RTP 68,45%

European RouletteR 2 1278 wagers · RTP 222,94%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7538 wagers · RTP 7,13%

BlackjackR 1 2913 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 2574 wagers · RTP 36,97%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3592 wagers · RTP 69,64%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies