Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #5 of 1,000

P0695

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 98,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 55 910

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 45 910

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 6 934Deviation R 52 845

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 45 910. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 744

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 952 to R 26 947
Finished ahead: 196 / 1,000 (19,6%)
At least one ruin: 110 / 1,000 (11,0%)
Median rank: #930 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.029
Mean bets / session: 5.662
Loss multiplier: 1.498×, capped at 4 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,4% / 71,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 19 94324 wagers · RTP 96,22%

American RouletteR 17 77021 wagers · RTP 172,54%

European RouletteR 12 26414 wagers · RTP 357,14%

CrashR 8 71818 wagers · RTP 146,69%

BaccaratR 6 9958 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 8478 wagers · RTP 163,36%

BlackjackR 2 6283 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 60016 wagers · RTP 75,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies