Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #921 of 1,000

P0696

Loss-chasing. The visible result sits at the 8,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 691

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 309

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 072Deviation -R 8 237

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 309. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 759

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 518 to R 25 743
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #780 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.238
Mean bets / session: 3.141
Loss multiplier: 1.3205×, capped at 5 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,7% / 65,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 4 78716 wagers · RTP 56,86%

American RouletteR 4 46014 wagers · RTP 53,45%

CrashR 3 99115 wagers · RTP 79,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 54512 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 1346 wagers · RTP 91,38%

European RouletteR 1 4647 wagers · RTP 91,19%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0283 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 62,50%

BaccaratR 8123 wagers · RTP 149,14%

Lottery / JackpotR 4955 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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